Starting Over
Posted by estiator at 10 January, at 08 : 50 AM Print
COVER STORY
After a tumultuous year, our industry insiders preview 2021.
By Michael Kaminer
EVEN OUR WILDEST predictions couldn’t have captured what an insane year 2020 turned out to be. Now it’s time to look forward. What will our industry look like in 2021? How will customers behave? What will they want? Will the economy bounce back—or crawl? For answers—or, at least, educated guesses—we turned to leaders in our industry. Some own restaurants. Some counsel restaurateurs. Some champion Greek food. Here, all of them share insights on the next 12 months, and what we’ve learned from the 12 we just endured.
“COVID has made people aware of what we put into our bodies and how it affects our health, our immunity, our environment. That will be manifested at all levels of eating— when restaurants hopefully and finally open again, and as people shop for food. I see it in my own work. People are asking for more and more plant-based and plant-forward food. That area will grow. The Mediterranean diet has hit its stride with this disease. It couples health and flavor, so it’s right on target. In Greek restaurants, there is always a large number of plant-based dishes. About 99.9% of all Greek menus, including souvlaki joints, have a lot of plant-based dishes. Restaurant owners may not be marketing them as such. Touting the Mediterranean diet, and making the Greek diet synonymous with the Mediterranean diet in people’s minds, will register with consumers.”
—Diane Kochilas, cookbook author, consultant, host of My Greek Table on PBS, set to return for its fourth season in 2021
“Many believe wisdom that there will be a Roaring ’20s return in the spring. I believe this is true, as customers thirst for the community they can only experience—and have experienced for millennia—in a restaurant. For independents to see this other side will depend on our government’s ability to find bipartisan solutions alongside a real market correction, not a real estate market evisceration.”
—James Mallios, Civetta Hospitality, New York (Amali/Manhattan, Calissa/The Hamptons, Bar Marseille/The Rockaways)
➡ I predict a spring awakening like we have never seen before. There’s so much pent-up energy that will explode this spring as people feel safer venturing out and all these people will have 30%-40% fewer restaurants to choose from, driving record sales for the strong operators remaining.
The supply and demand has shifted to strong operators. Restaurants are raising their prices and customers are paying it. The market for restaurateurs to secure amazing deals on amazing locations is like never before, and it’s only going to be worse for landlords and better for new tenants between now and spring 2021. We are already seeing concessions being made by landlords that we haven’t seen in a decades—low rents, no rent for the first year, lots of tenant improvement allowances, limited guarantees/exposure, etc. It’s a buyer’s market. It’s a tenant’s market, and that’s promising for all.
Customers need to feel safe and smart with their choices, and since this is hard to measure, restaurants will need to be safe, smart, and extremely savvy with their marketing messages since all restaurants are going to claim the same levels of safety. Off-premise— delivery, carryout, automats, catering—will be the new normal. Restaurants not adapting to that fact will close.”
—Dan Rowe, CEO, Fransmart (franchise-development leader whose brands include Greek from Greece and Brooklyn Dumpling Shop)
“My outlook is positive and grim at the same time. Positive for those who have taken this time to regroup and reset/cleanup, and of course, stay in the game long enough to see it through to post-COVID, whenever that will be. Grim for those who have done none of the above but rather stuck their heads in the sand waiting for some magic solution to solve this all for them.”
—Andreas Koutsoudakis, Esq., partner, Koutsoudakis & Iakovou Law Group, New York City
“2021 will be the year of collaborations. Chefs and chefs, brands and brands. The one thing we have learned from 2020 is that the restaurant and food business is about togetherness, so it is natural that many operators and chefs will pool their resources. I believe we will see more groups merge, and chefs opening new restaurants and quickservice brands together. Also, there will be an influx of regional cuisines from all over the world. While Americans know Greek and other cuisines broadly, I think it’s the right time to present the nuances from various regions focusing on homestyle cooking.”
—Steven Hall, founder, Hall PR, New York
➡ “With regard to the foodservice outlook in 2020, I’m optimistic and share the belief that sales will increase by 8%-10% vs 2020. That being said, it’s difficult to predict the future, as the environment keeps changing and uncertainty is still high.”
—Peter Parthenis, president and CEO, Grecian Delight
“The cold winter weather makes outdoor dining less helpful, and the 25% indoor occupancy with the likelihood it will be shut down again completely makes the situation even more dire for New York City restaurants. We need the federal government to pass the Restaurants Act, a bipartisan revitalization program that would help these small businesses pay rent, payroll, and other expenses to give them a fighting chance of survival. If this bill does not get enacted into law, we will see countless more restaurants shutter and many more jobs lost unnecessarily. It would be shameful.”
—Andrew Rigie, executive director, NYC Hospitality Alliance
➡ “For 2021 we are certainly hoping that the world returns to some kind of new normal. I anticipate that non-contact pickup and delivery options will spike in the coming year and that restaurants across the board will need to keep considering social distancing and sanitization procedures even once the COVID pandemic is over.
Businesses need to be flexible in 2021. There is no telling what different local governments are going to do in terms of COVID restrictions, so restaurants should have a plan in place in the event that they get restricted or locked down, including offering online ordering, delivery, and contact-free takeout. Additionally, restaurants need to be aware that supply chains have been disrupted. This means that we cannot always get the ingredients we need or are accustomed to getting regularly. Chefs need to be creative and flexible in dealing with these challenges and make change when certain items spike in price—last year, it was ground beef.
I predict that more businesses will close if they do not receive government assistance to stay open. In that event, the restaurants left standing will have a greater market share moving forward.
—Dimitri Syros, co-owner, The Breakfast Company, Bradenton, FL
“Our plans in 2019 to expand our supermarket wholesale trade has been put on hold until we are able to bring back the food demonstrations. With the vaccine around the corner, food suppliers have a unique opportunity to match expectations for quality—in the United States, with fine products of Greece—and expand product sales with wholesale markets and develop its clientele. One thing is certain: Consumers can detect when they are given a quality product, and that is what helps build market staples that clients don’t want to be without.”
—David Devin, founder, Kardamas Olive Oils
➡ “We believe with all the challenges this past year with COVID, people are fatigued and stressed-out. Once the vaccine is distributed and we can open up safely, our customers will return. Everyone has been cooking at home and sheltered. People will be ready to re-emerge back to the community and restaurants. Ready to get back to their favorite places they have missed. So many of our customers are still working from home and have not returned. When they do venture out to pick up food, they tell us they miss us. People will be hungry to get back to normal!”
—Beba and Tasos Touloupis, owners, Ted’s Restaurant, Birmingham, AL
“For the past nine months, the opportunities we’ve seen in the restaurant industry have been similar to those that came following the Depression era of the 1930s. We have made deals on chain restaurants with landlords that we never would’ve had the opportunity to make otherwise if it wasn’t for landlords looking for restaurateurs with great track records. For anyone with a reputable track record, landlords are paying up to $500 per square foot in tenant improvements. So that we’re protected from government shutdowns in the future, we are only agreeing to percentage leases, which means a percent of our gross sales equates to rent. If another shutdown happens, we’ll be protected. I call it the COVID clause, which we put in all our leases as a non-negotiable, so if the landlord doesn’t want it, we won’t move forward. The fourth quarter of 2021 will be like the beginning of the Roaring ’20s. There will be explosive growth in restaurants, and I predict it will go until the end of the ’20s. I think it’ll be impossible to get a hotel in NYC, restaurants will explode, airlines will be at record heights, and we’ll learn a lesson that hospitality drives the economy, which is something Governor Cuomo should have considered.”
—Stratis Morfogen, director of operations, Brooklyn Chop House, and owner, Brooklyn Dumpling Shop
