What Restaurants Will Look Like This Year – And Beyond?
Posted by estiator at 18 January, at 09 : 39 AM Print
INDUSTRY TRENDS
By Maria Benardis
The trend-driven nature of our business means that restaurateurs are often forced to look up from their long to-do lists and take a pulse on what’s happening in the industry. For those who don’t have the time to do their own research, Estiator rounded up the current and foreseeable future trends that will make their mark. Society is shifting, and with each generational change there are new customer preferences and needs.
Notable trends expected to have the most profound impact are the demand for Greek and Mediterranean cuisine, grab-and-go convenience, delivery service, fast-casual models, environmentally friendly options, and vegan and vegetarian menu options.
As 2019 drew to a close, global strategy firm LEK Consulting declared it “the year of delivery,” reporting that, for the first time, off-premise revenue is surpassing on-premise sales. Takeout and delivery, it says, are expected to continue their growth trajectory, coming in at more than triple the rate of in-restaurant sales through 2023.
DoorDash, that pesky third-party delivery service that has imposed itself on thousands of Google restaurant listings without the restaurant’s consent or knowledge, indicates that the amount consumers are spending on delivery and takeout is growing at a rate two to three times faster than on-premise restaurant sales. According to the company, takeout and delivery sales are poised to overtake on-premise sales in 2020.
While DoorDash has a vested stake in the realization of this prediction, the emergence of ghost kitchens, virtual restaurants, and cloud kitchens indicates that they may not be far off the mark. Those models require a physical presence as much as Amazon requires brick-and-mortar. With labor costs skyrocketing, and with the financial barriers of opening an attractive eatery compounding, savvy restaurateurs should be figuring out how to produce and deliver rather than how to attract bees to the flower. If the retail apocalypse is upon us, can the restaurant apocalypse be far behind? Perhaps not, but the growth of delivery and takeout is still nothing to be overlooked. And businesses that are reliant on on-premise sales will be pressed to provide more of an experiential service.
A recent Grubhub report noted that vegan and vegetarian orders ballooned in 2019, and this trend is likely to continue in 2020 and beyond. Cauliflower pizza orders increased by 650%, vegan pad thai by 280% and the “Impossible” burger by 203%.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the demand for vegetarian and plant-based options tops the list of most popular menu trends, while specific items that are among the highest-trending are Belgian waffles, never-ending nachos, Korean grab-and-go snacks, chicken sandwiches, porchetta (that crackly pork dish from Rome), bao buns, creative charcuterie boards, and Mediterranean fast-casual items. And from the “what’s old is new” category, French cuisine appears to be making a comeback.
Af&co., a San Francisco-based consulting firm, recently released its own report. In it, the firm says that “vegan has gone viral,” with plant-based options becoming more plentiful (and tasty) than ever before—a trend driving chefs of all genres to devote more attention to vegetables.
“It isn’t just about animal welfare,” the report says, “but about what’s good for the environment and what’s good for us, without sacrificing flavor or presentation.”
Where the rubber meets the road, famed French pastry shop Laduree has gone as far as to open an all-vegan outlet in Beverly Hills, while expanding its vegan offerings at shops in New York City and Paris.
Restaurateurs are cashing in on the infatuation with Mediterranean cuisine with a number of menu items, including “Jerusalem” bagels, a growing trend in the larger cosmopolitan urban centers. These aren’t bagels at all, but are similar to the Greek “koulouri”— crispy, elongated bread rings coated with sesame seeds. The unconventional “bagels” are often served with a variety of Mediterranean dips such as za’atar and extra-virgin olive oil.
On the carb front, Af&co says sourdough is making a renewed appearance, particularly in donuts and bagels. “There’s a greater knowledge and appreciation for the art of sourdough, a traditional way of leavening using fermentation,” it reports. Health benefits, it says, also play a large role in the rise of sourdough’s popularity, as it can make baked items more easily digestible while also offering nutritional benefits.
Af&co’s report also called out some hot concepts to watch out for, among which is San Francisco’s Souvla SoMa, a Greek fast-casual joint that recently opened its fifth location and first virtual restaurant. Industry gatherings are a place where emerging trends are identified, analyzed and discussed, and such was the case when the Multi-Unit Foodservice Operators Conference convened last September in Denver. At the conference, Jack Li, Haiku Master at Datassential, a leading food-insights agency, presented some interesting data on changing attitudes toward health and wellness, global food trends, next-generation delivery, and brand affinity. He discussed the need to cater to personal needs, going beyond just the food and eating experience; the emergence of robot chefs and the next-generation delivery by flying droids; the need to address weight-management on the menu (low-fat, low-calorie, and low-carb options); the need for food to address environmental concerns (local, natural, and organic); and incorporating functional foods, superfoods, and personalizing nutrition (vegan, vegetarian, and flexitarian, which is on the rise).
But what do chefs and restaurant owners think believe will be trending next year?
A chef who has always had her finger on the pulse of consumer tastes is Maria Petridis. Petrides is the chef and owner of Maria’s Mediterranean in Bayside, New York, since 2010. Unlike many contemporary chefs, she has no formal culinary training, a fact that did not stop her from pursuing her dream of becoming a chef and opening a restaurant. Recognition came for her in 2016, when she won on Chopped, the popular chef competition show that airs on the Food Network. Petrides is optimistic about the future of the industry and strongly believes that a big 2020 food trend will be healthier foods for kids. “Parents and children are becoming more concerned in what they are eating,” she says. Another big trend for 2020 is the open-concept kitchen. “Since the beginning, I have adopted the open concept. People want to see how their food is being cooked, especially kids. The open concept gives kids the opportunity to see how healthy food is being prepared,” she says.
Petrides strongly believes that healthy eating in general will be a big trend in 2020. Like most innovators, Petrides looks to the future and, as such, includes on her menu a lot of plant-based, gluten-free, low-carb, healthy options. “In that sense, I believe we are ahead of the game,” she says.
Another forward-thinking restaurant owner is George Lambracos, owner of Egeo in Astoria, Queens. He has worked in various restaurants in Greece, from Lesvoro in Amorgo to a small taverna on the island of Paros. He also owned a successful and popular bar in New Jersey.
Like Petrides, Lambracos has also had no formal culinary training. “I learned how to cook from the best person any Greek can learn from—their yiayia,” he says.
He sees the biggest food trend to be sustainable sourcing. “People are paying more attention to where the food and ingredients they consume are coming from and how they were specifically grown or made,” he says.
“I use many sustainable ingredients from Greece, including sea salt from the island of Kithira, thyme from Mount Athos, and extra-virgin olive oil from my olive trees in Mani. Our main attraction is our fish display. All our fish is sustainable, and most come directly from Greece,” he says.
Lambracos also agrees that fast-casual and grab-and-go will continue to be strong trends. “People, especially in New York, live fast-paced, crazy lives,” he says. “The idea of sitting down for dinner all together is, unfortunately, a thing of the past.”
A personalized, warm, welcoming experience is also a trend he sees will receive high priority. “With the growth of technology and social media, people lose that face-to-face interaction and everyone has become an employee number or a username. People love to go to a place where they are recognized and feel like the owners and employees really care about them outside of just being another customer,” he says.
Looking ahead toward the coming decade, the National Restaurant Association issued a report providing a 10-year outlook on the state of the restaurant industry, examining the key indicators shaping it.
“The restaurant industry is at a crossroads as it finds ways to respond to consumer demand for meal and snack solutions away from home,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the National Restaurant Association. “Restaurant owners are swiftly adapting across their businesses to meet the wants and needs of guests. The radical transformation of the last decade will change the way the industry operates going forward.”
The use of kiosks in limited service restaurants will become more commonplace, as well as video menu boards. The report states that restaurant operators will be more likely to implement local, targeted, and customized promotions, while women will hold a larger proportion of upper-management jobs in the industry.
As the industry has found ways to integrate technology and data into its operating model, the next decade will bring greater focus in this regard as restaurants adapt to growing consumer expectations in the on-demand world. Guests will expect a seamless digital experience and want their preferences known at each interaction with a restaurant.
Keeping foodservice fresh and current is the name of the game for smart operators and chefs. Changing trends means constantly changing your perspective from the vantage point of the kitchen. Awareness and adaptability will be key this year and beyond to ensure your business’s longevity and success.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
→ A greater proportion of meals will no longer be cooked at home, lending to the continued rise in delivery, virtual restaurants, subscription services, and graband-go at retail locations.
→ Cloud kitchens will continue to grow, fueled by the expansion of centralized kitchens and the growth of online, delivery-only brands.
→ Consumers may grow increasingly loyal to third-party delivery apps, impacting loyalty to individual restaurants.
→ Governments are likely to impose further regulation on third-party delivery.
→ Drive-thrus could need to accommodate interactions with self-driving vehicles.
→ The restaurant of the future will be smaller in size. Smaller restaurants could incorporate more automated kitchen equipment and the typical kitchen layout may change.
→ Sustainable sourcing and transparency will continue to grow. To remain competitive, restaurants will need to adapt to evolving dietary restrictions and preferences. Food trends and menus will evolve to reflect the increasingly health-conscious, ecological mindset of the consumer.
→ Single-use restaurant packaging, including in delivery, will evolve.
→ Artificial intelligence with knowledge of cooking techniques, food chemistry, recipes, and alcohol could produce unexpected new culinary and beverage experiences.
→ Advanced genetic knowledge and the rising incidence of lifestyle diseases are likely to create growing demand for meals that provide specific health benefits to diners.
→ Operators will automate more routine back-of-house tasks to enhance productivity and efficiency.
